Repercussions of Assad’s overthrow on Syria’s fragile governance

Months following the rapid rebel offensive led by Islamists that toppled Bashar al-Assad’s regime, Syria continues to be a nation in crisis. The recently formed transitional administration, under the leadership of Ahmad al-Sharaa, is facing increasing security issues, with violent opposition from remaining Assad supporters. Although the breakdown of Assad’s repressive government was a significant milestone in Syria’s 13-year civil war, achieving lasting peace and stability is turning out to be extremely complex.

The transitional administration, mainly made up of individuals who gained recognition from opposition hubs such as Idlib in the northwest, has taken over a fragmented nation ravaged by prolonged conflict. The dismantling of Assad-era institutions, including the military and the Baath Party, has resulted in the displacement of hundreds of thousands of former regime officials and allies. A significant number of these individuals have declined to make peace with the new administration, sparking unrest that jeopardizes the stability of the delicate government.

The transitional government, composed largely of figures who rose to prominence from opposition strongholds like Idlib in the northwest, has inherited a fractured country devastated by years of conflict. The removal of Assad-era power structures, including the army and the Baath Party, has displaced hundreds of thousands of former regime officials and supporters. Many of these individuals have refused to reconcile with the new government, fueling unrest that threatens to destabilize the fragile administration.

A lingering threat from Assad loyalists

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights recently highlighted a fatal ambush in the province of Latakia, where gunmen attacked government troops trying to detain a former Assad official. This assault resulted in the deaths of at least 13 security members and sparked a surge of violence throughout the area. By the next day, confrontations had intensified, leading to more than 120 fatalities—a clear indication of the difficulties confronting the interim administration.

The Institute for the Study of War, a research entity, has cautioned that Assad loyalists are poised to create some of the most efficient insurgent units in Syria. Their knowledge of military strategies and capacity to use pre-existing networks provide them a strategic edge in orchestrating assaults against the new administration. For interim President Sharaa, this escalating rebellion constitutes the most formidable barrier to solidifying power and maintaining national security.

Increasing strife in Alawite areas

The rebel activities in Latakia and Tartous have exacerbated tensions between Syria’s Sunni-led transitional administration and the Alawite minority, a Shia branch that was the foundation of Assad’s regime. The Alawites, who had privileges and influence under Assad’s rule, have suffered considerable setbacks since its downfall. Many now feel sidelined and targeted, despite Sharaa’s promises that his government will honor Syria’s varied religious groups.

Recent accounts of aggression towards Alawite communities have intensified these tensions. Activists have alleged that gunmen linked to the government have killed dozens of male inhabitants in Alawite regions, a claim yet to be independently confirmed but which has nonetheless triggered widespread anger. These events threaten to push more Alawites towards insurgent factions, complicating the government’s attempts to stabilize the area even further.

Recent reports of violence against Alawite communities have deepened these tensions. Activists have accused government-aligned gunmen of killing dozens of male residents in Alawite areas, a claim that has not been independently verified but has nonetheless sparked outrage. Such incidents risk driving more Alawites into the arms of insurgent groups, further complicating the government’s efforts to stabilize the region.

The upcoming economic and diplomatic hurdles

The economic and diplomatic challenges ahead

Beyond the immediate security threats, Syria’s transitional government is contending with a dire economic situation. Years of war have left nine out of ten Syrians living in poverty, and the country remains under crippling international sanctions imposed during Assad’s rule. Sharaa’s administration has made lifting these sanctions a priority, viewing it as essential to rebuilding the economy and gaining legitimacy on the global stage.

A Nation Fragmented

Even after Assad’s downfall, Syria continues to be a mosaic of rival factions and external forces. The interim government’s authority is anything but complete, as diverse groups dominate different regions of the nation. These factions, frequently supported by foreign entities with conflicting agendas, further complicate Syria’s delicate political scenario.

Despite the fall of Assad, Syria remains a patchwork of competing factions and external influences. The transitional government’s control is far from absolute, with various groups holding sway over different parts of the country. These factions, often backed by foreign powers with competing interests, add another layer of complexity to Syria’s fragile political landscape.

For Sharaa, the task of unifying the country is as much about earning the trust of its people as it is about overcoming the insurgent threat. His administration has called on former members of Assad’s security forces to surrender their weapons and accept reconciliation, but progress has been slow. “We are keeping an eye on everyone, but we don’t want to create the impression that we are hunting them down,” said a high-ranking official in the transitional government. This cautious approach reflects the delicate balance the new leadership must strike as it attempts to restore order without alienating key segments of the population.

The ousting of Bashar al-Assad was a pivotal moment in Syria’s history, yet the transition to peace and stability is riddled with challenges. From the insurgent dangers presented by Assad’s supporters to the profound splits among Syria’s religious and ethnic groups, the future remains uncertain. The interim administration must maneuver through these difficulties while attending to the urgent demands of a populace ravaged by over ten years of conflict.

Simultaneously, Syria’s leaders are under increasing international examination as they strive to remove sanctions and obtain the necessary support for reconstruction. For the transitional government, success will rely on effectively tackling the roots of unrest, promoting inclusivity, and showing a true dedication to moving away from the authoritarian practices of the past.

At the same time, Syria’s leaders face mounting international scrutiny as they seek to lift sanctions and secure the support needed to rebuild the country. For the transitional government, success will depend on its ability to address the root causes of unrest, foster inclusivity, and demonstrate a genuine commitment to breaking from the authoritarian practices of the past.

As clashes continue and tensions rise, Syria’s future hangs in the balance. The coming months will be critical for Sharaa’s government as it works to consolidate power, restore security, and lay the foundation for a more stable and prosperous nation.