Sales of new US vehicles should reach higher levels since 2019 among prices and the increase in inventories

The US automotive market is ready for its stronger performance over the years, with the sales of new vehicles that should climb at not seen levels since 2019. Analysts in the sector provide for a recovery in 2025, led by the improvement of convenience, by the rates of lower interest and from a gradual normalization of the inventory vehicle following years of interruptions of the supply chain and inflated prices.

Cox Automotive designs according to which new sales of light vehicles will reach 16.3 million units in 2025, slightly in advance of the forecasts of S&P Global Mobility and Edmunds, which provide sales of about 16.2 million. These estimates represent a modest increase from the expected interval of this year from 15.9 million to 16 million units and mark a significant rebound from the recent minimum, although still shy of the 17 million vehicles sold in 2019.

Jessica Caldwell, Edmunds' Chief Insights Officer, observed that while consumers still feel economic pressure, the market is becoming more accessible for buyers. “The market has become a slightly more friendly place for cars buyers than at the beginning of the year,” said Tuesday.

Entry-level vehicles and convenience are at the center of the scene

One of the most promising areas of growth should be entry-level and cheap vehicles. Since the beginning of Covid-19 pandemics, the automotive industry has faced high and limited inventories, leaving many buyers at the price outside the market.

EDMUNDS Report that the Average Transaction Price for a New Vehicle in 2024 was $ 47.465, Down Slightly from $ 47.851 in 2023 but still a staggering Increase of 27.2% from $ 37.310 in 2019. The trend toward More Affordable Vehicles is Expected to Help Drive Sales Growth, particle -part of the customers who were waiting for prices to drop.

Electric vehicles continue to gain traction

Electrified vehicles, including hybrids, plug-ins hybrids and fully electrical models, should also see substantial growth in 2025. Analysts provide that sales of fully electric vehicles in the United States will establish another record in 2024, with total sales that they approach 1.3 million units. This would represent about 8% of the market, compared to 7.6% last year, even if still below the initial goal of 10% of the year.

Tesla, the dominant player in the electric vehicle market, is expected that he will experience his decline of the first year on year from 2014. Despite this, the model Y and model 3 of Tesla remain the first two best -selling electric vehicles. According to Stephanie Valdez Streaty, director of Industry Insights at Cox Automotive, Tesla's share on the electric vehicle market has fallen below 50%, since the competition from other car manufacturers intensifies.

“The first three producers are Tesla, Hyundai Motor Group and General Motors,” said Valdez Streaty. “GM recorded the largest increase in the market share year by year, while various new models have collectively cut Tesla's domain.”

Cox Automotive provides that by 2025, about 25% of all new vehicles of vehicles will be electrified, with fully electric vehicles representing over 10% of the market. However, the growth in sales of electric vehicles could be hindered if federal tax credits up to $ 7,500 for purchases of electric vehicles were eliminated, a political change promised by the president elected Donald Trump.

Political uncertainty pursuant to the Trump administration

The regulatory and commercial uncertainties before Trump's inauguration in January could have significant implications for the US automotive market. In particular, Trump's proposals to impose rates up to 25% on the vehicles imported from Canada and Mexico could interrupt the production and supply chains, potentially remodeling the market.

Jonathan Smoke, COX Automotive Economist, described the possibility of these rates as a “radical interruption” for industry. However, it also expressed optimism that any important political change would take time for implementation and could create short -term enhancement of the demand.

“With rates, suppose that new significant policies will not be issued,” Smoke said during a virtual briefing Tuesday. “If changes occur, it is likely that they require time and any short -term impact could stimulate demand while consumers are hurrying to make purchases before potential price increases.”

Press on the prices and earnings of car manufacturers

While sales of higher vehicles are generally good news for industry, analysts warn that the earnings of car manufacturers could undergo success next year due to a growing incentive, increasing inventories and falling price transactions.

“Prices are reaching unsustainable levels”, observed the Wells Fargo Colin Langan analyst in a Monday report. He indicated the inventories of growing retailers and the increase in incentives as signs that car manufacturers are facing the pressure to reduce prices, a tendency for the benefit of consumers but weighs the profit margins heavily.

Although prices remain almost record levels, growth has slowed down, reporting a movement of market dynamics. For buyers, this is a welcome news, since vehicles become more convenient after years of inflated prices. For car manufacturers, however, the reduced price power can lead to closer margins and greater competition.

Looking to the future

While the US automotive market enters 2025, he faces a mix of opportunities and challenges. The improvement of convenience and the increase in inventory levels should guide higher sales, while the growing adoption of electric vehicles continues to remodel the panorama of the sector.

However, regulatory uncertainties in the field of Trump administration arriving, combined with the pressure on consumer prices and preferences, could create turbulence for car manufacturers in the months to come.

For now, the industry is cautiously optimistic, with analysts involving that 2025 will mark a new higher point for vehicles sales since the pandemic has interrupted the market, although not without its share of obstacles to navigate along the road .